Quantitative Inference of Decision Making Strategies under Inherent Knowledge Uncertainties.

Document Type : Research Studies

Authors

1 Institute of Graduate Studies & Research., Alexandria University., Egypt.

2 Statistics Department., Alexandria Customs Computer Center., Alexandria., Egypt.

Abstract

In this paper a model and its associated software system, that is being used for designation of optimal strategies are presented. Obtained optimal strategies are employed by decision markers to safety react to various conditions. The fact that decision markers are expected to take actions according to given observations is discussed along with emphasizing the relationships between these observations and the underlying states of nature that caused them. This is a many-to-many relation and care must be taken to avoid unreliable of the real cause or causes a observed situation.
The inherent uncertainties in the assessment process have been identified and accounted for during the Iosses estimation phases. These uncertainties are partially attributed to limitations in the decision marker's knowledge and partially due to the obscured problem nature.
The software application to a real system is illustrated. The application has been chosen to model the operations of an existing information center as an example of a wide class of similar systems. The application aimed at experimenting the phases of the software system and identifying the merits of using such quantitative models in furnishing knowledge gaps.  

Main Subjects

MEJ- Mansoura Engineering Journal
Volume 20, Issue 4
VOL 20 has two issues issue 4 consist of two parts from (September to December)
December 1995
Pages 48-60

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics